The Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) reported that during the past seven months of the year, Vietnamese coffee exports reached an estimated 964 thousand tonnes, worth nearly US$3.54 billion, with this being a drop of 13.8% in volume, but up 30.9% in value over the same period from last year.

July alone witnessed coffee exports reach over 70,000 tonnes, down 35% on-year and almost unchanged from May.

In the first months of the year, coffee import turnover in many major markets such as the EU, the US, Canada, Japan, and China all enjoyed growth due to growing demand and high prices.

According to details given by the European Statistical Office (Eurostat), the EU's coffee imports from the nation recorded a high increase of 71.5% to reach more than EUR1 billion, equivalent to US$1.1 billion.

Vietnamese coffee market share in the EU's total import turnover from the extra-bloc market increased sharply, from 16.1% during the first five months of 2023 to 20.35% from the same period of this year.

Statistics compiled by the US International Trade Commission indicate that the US imported US$226 million worth of coffee from the nation, up 31.1% over last year’s corresponding period.

The market share of Vietnamese coffee as part of total US import turnover accounted for 6.62% during the past five months of the year, higher than the market share of 5.26% from between January and May last year.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) said that in the 2023 to 2024 crop, Vietnamese coffee output is estimated to be 1.47 million tonnes, with this being the lowest level in four years, down 20% compared to the 2022 to 2023 crop.

Coffee output in the 2024 to 2025 crop is likely to endure a continued fall due to unfavourable weather factors. Thus, if not counting the inventory carried over from the previous year, Vietnam will only have about 200,000 tonnes left for exports from now until September.

The Import-Export Department believes that the Vietnamese coffee industry will benefit from price. In July, coffee export prices maintained their upward momentum, reaching US$4,844 per tonne, an increase of 5% compared to June and double that of the same period from last year.

According to details given by Bloomberg, global robusta coffee prices will fluctuate in a strong and prolonged upward trend due to ongoing concerns about scarce supplies from Vietnam. According to information from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the world may face a shortage of up to 35 million bags (60kg/bag) of robusta coffee by 2040. In addition, world coffee prices continued to be supported by growing demand from European buyers before the provisions of the EUDR anti-deforestation law come into effect.

The progress of the coffee harvest in Brazil is really putting downward pressure on coffee prices on the world market.

Consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that Brazil's 2024 to 2025 coffee harvest was 81% complete as of July 23, faster than the 74% recorded at the same time last year and faster than the five-year average of 77%.

However, world coffee prices have increased thanks to information that coffee supplies from Mexico and Central America have begun tightening, earlier in the 12-month export cycle than last year.

Some industry experts also predicted that coffee prices will continue to increase until mid-2025 due to a shortage of supply from major growing regions. Coffee exports are looking forward to the new harvest season and it is forecast that coffee exports for the whole year could set a record of US$ 5.5 billion to US$6 billion.

Source: VOV